Syllabus -see edx
A major geopolitical contest has
broken out between America and
China. It will be the main driving
force of global
geopolitics for the next decade or two. The main
goal of this MOOC, entitled “US-
China relations: Past, Present
and Future”, is to
deliver a deep
understanding of the historical roots, the structural
forces,
the major misunderstandings and possible alternative policies
that
both drive and could
drive the US-China relationship.
Week 1: China’s
Century
of Humiliation vs America’s Century of Triumphalism
After an
introductory video explaining
the purpose and structure of the course, the remaining five
videos will explain how a major source of misunderstanding between America is a result of the different
historical
experiences
of
the two countries.
Hence, in
week 1, we will take a deep dive into their respective histories.
China suffered 100
years
of humiliation
from
roughly 1840 to 1949. The key
events
included the
Opium War, the sacking of the Summer Palace, the Western Settlements in
Shanghai, the Sino-
Japanese War,
the May Fourth
1919 movement, the Japanese Occupation. This
century of humiliation
was probably the worst
century ever in China’s history. No
one can understand contemporary China
without understanding the
psychological impact
of this century
of humiliation.
America enjoyed a hundred years of triumphalism from
roughly 1890 to
1990. The key events
included Teddy Roosevelt’s imperialist moves, the overtaking
of Great
Britain as
the
world’s number 1 economic power, the World
War II victories, the landing
on the moon, the explosion
of the American middle class,
the
scientific breakthroughs, Silicon Valley and the end
of the Cold War. This
century
was
clearly the
best century
in America’s history.
It is important to
understand these different mindsets of Chinese and American leaders if one wants to
understand the deeper sources
of misunderstanding
between China and
the US.
Week 2: US-China relations: 1949
to 2020
Week 2 will first
cover the three phases of US-China relations from
1949 to 2020. Phase 1 saw deep
hostility and
direct
conflicts
between America and China from
1949 (the year of
the founding of the
People’s
Republic of China (PRC) to
1971. This hostility should have continued between a
Communist China and a Democratic America. Instead, with
the surprise visit of Henry Kissinger to
Beijing to
meet Mao Zedong
and Zhou Enlai in July 1971,
two decades of close collaboration and
partnership followed. The end
of the Cold War and the June 4th
1989 Tiananmen Incident triggered
1
Phase III of the relations,
which were characterized by ambivalence, with
both cooperation and
competition at
play between the two
powers.
By 2020, it has become clear that a major geopolitical contest has broken out between America and
China. Initially, it appeared anchored to the trade war that President
Trump launched in July
2018.
Soon it spread to other dimensions: technology, military,
political. Strategic mistakes made by both sides have led
to the eruption
of this geopolitical
contest. China’s main
mistake was to alienate one of
its
main supporting constituencies in America, the American Business
Community. America’s
main
mistake was larger: it launched a major geopolitical
contest against China without first
working
out a thoughtful and comprehensive long-term strategy, an insight
Henry Kissinger passed to
me
personally when I had lunch
with
him
in New York in
March 2018. In
so doing, America has ignored some key
elements of geopolitical
wisdom left behind
by past American strategic thinkers,
like George Kennan,
who had formulated Ameri-ca’s strategy against the Soviet Union
at the beginning of the Cold War.
Week 3: Fundamental
misunderstandings between America & China
In Week 3, we will study
in depth the fundamental misunderstandings that have developed be-tween America and
China. It will build on a key strategic axiom provided
by one of China’s
greatest
strategic thinkers, Sun
Tzu. He said, “If you know the enemy and
know yourself, you need not fear
the
result of a hundred battles.”
America has ignored this advice in two
critical respects.
First,
while it is aware of its strengths, it is
unaware of certain
critical weaknesses it has developed. Second, while it is aware of China’s
weaknesses, it is
unaware
of the great
strengths China has developed. The goal of this
week is to
develop a realistic understanding of
each side’s strengths and
weaknesses.
Most American
believe that in a contest
between a dynamic,
flexible democracy and a rigid,
centralized communist party system, the democracy will always triumph,
as demonstrated in America’s victory over the Soviet Union. Yet, new realities have emerged. America, as Martin Wolf has
confirmed, has become a plutocracy, leading to
a “sea of
despair” among its working
classes. China,
by contrast, is run by a meritocracy. A meritocratic system can
deliver better performances
than
a plutocracy.
America has also
wasted trillions of dollars on excessive defense spending and fighting
unnec-essary
wars in
the
Middle East. Can America make U-turns? Surprisingly,
it cannot. By
con-trast,
China has
been prudent and
careful
in both these dimensions. It’s the
only major power
that
hasn’t fought a war
in forty years. Many Americans believe that
America has to stand
up to China because it has
become
aggressive and
militaristic. Actually, a study of the two
thousand
years of China’s history
reveals China prefers
to avoid military
conflicts. China’s
strategic culture discourages
participation in wars, although it
encourages preparing
for them.
2
The goal
of this week’s lectures is
to develop a more objective and accurate understanding
of
the
actual behavior and behavioral patterns
of America and
China in the global
order.
Week 4: Can America and
China choose a better path?
The paradox
of the geopolitical
contest that has broken out
between America and China is that
it
is both inevitable as well
as
avoidable. The inevitable dimension has
been
spelled out in the
first three
weeks. Week 4 will explain how
this geopolitical contest can and
should be avoided.
While there are 1.4 billion
people living in
China and
330 in America, there are still 6 billion people
living outside. In the Cold War that America launched against the Soviet
Union,
many countries
around the world joined America’s side, including
the West Europeans and
major Third World
countries, like Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand,
Indonesia and China. This
time around, in the
contest against China,
virtually no country has explicitly joined America’s side. By looking at
case
studies of countries like Australia and Europe, India and Japan, this week will explain
why America
will find it difficult
to marshal a strong
coalition against China. Instead, most countries
of the world
are likely to
develop closer trade and
investment links with China and not take sides
in the US-China geopolitical contest.
Bearing in mind all the points made above an
in earlier weeks,
this course will conclude by
recommending
that
a wiser course of action for America to
take
would be to realise that fundamen-
tally there are five non-contradictions
between America and
China. The term
non-contradiction is not
often used in
Western discourse. The Western mind is used to
black-and-white distinctions. One side
is right; one side is wrong.
The Chinese mind
is different. Both
black and white can be right,
as
spelled out
in the philosophy of yin
and
yang.
Hence, for example, if the primary goal of America is to
improve the well-being
of its
people and if
China has
a similar goal
for
its people, both sides can cooperate and
fulfil their goals.
Similarly, both
sides
share a common
goal in
overcoming global
challenges, like global warming and Covid-19.
Even
in the area of values
and
civilizational differences, both sides can adopt a philosophy of live and let live.
The strategic goal
of this course therefore is
to enable the students to
engage in
deep
reflection on this
major geopolitical
contest that
has
broken
out. Deeper reflection
will show that
a wiser course of
action for both
sides
would be to avoid an
outright zero-sum geopolitical
contest and
thereby improve
the well-being of their own
people and
the six billion who
live outside.
In short, huge stakes
are at
play in this contest. A course like this is absolutely critical and
vital
now.
3
Reading List
The following is
the
full reading list for “US-China Relations: Past,
Present and
Future”. These
resources will complement
the main video
lectures
for
the course. The main text
for
this course will
be Has
China Won? The Chinese Challenge
to American Primacy. The necessary
excerpts
will be uploaded
for
all learners, and Verified
Learners will get a soft copy of the full book. In
addition,
there
will be a selected list of required and optional
readings. Do read
the required readings before the start
of the week, except for those marked with
an *,
which you
will read alongside the video
lectures
for
the
week. The optional readings
are for further learning, and
will build
on the points made in the video lectures. Links for open-access to
the
readings will be provided. The longer readings will also
have
the key pages marked in red, if you
do not have the time to
read the entire reading. As
you go through the course, do
refer regularly
to this list to
ensure that
you are on track with the readings.
Text
• Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy
o Excerpts
will be provided from pages
which
are part
of the required reading
o Verified Learners will have access
to a PDF of the full book
o A physical
copy
of the book can
be bought at https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/kishore-mahbubani/has-china-won/9781541768123/ and all major bookstores
Week 1: China’s Century of Humiliation vs America’s
Century of Triumph
Required
• *Monique Ross and Annabelle Quince, “Modern
China and the legacy
of
the Opium Wars,”
ABC, 2 September 2018, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-02/modern-china-and-the-
legacy-of-the-opium-wars/10172386
• *Harold
Evans, “The 20th century
belongs
to America,” Irish
Times, 20 September 1999,
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/the-20th-century-belongs-to-america-1.229289
Optional
• Angus Maddison, “Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run: 960-2030 AD,”
Development
Centre Studies, OECD,
2007
o Accessible at http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf. o Read pages 15-20
4
• Alison Adcock Kaufman, “The “Century of Humiliation,” Then and Now: Chinese
Perceptions of the International
Order”
Pacific Focus 25, no. 1 (2010): 1-33.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1976-5118.2010.01039.x
o A summary can be read at https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/3.10.11Kaufman.pdf
• Ezra F.
Vogel, China and
Japan: Facing
History, Cambridge:
Harvard University Press,
2019. o Chapter 3: Responding to
Western Challenges and
Reopening
Relations,
1839-1882.
Pp. 65-99.
o Chapter 7: Political Disaster and
the Road to War, 1911-1937. Pp.
203-247. • China’s Century of Humiliation
- documentary
o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6INqNwFF20
• Fairbank, John K.
"" American China Policy" to 1898: A Misconception." Pacific Historical Review 39, no. 4 (1970): 409-420.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/3637779
• Luce, Henry R. "The American Century." Diplomatic History23, no. 2 (1999): 159-171.
o Accessible at
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mlassite/discussions261/luce.pdf o Read pages 167-171
Week 2: US-China relations: 1949
to 2020
Required
• Has China Won (HCW)
o Chapter 1: Introduction
▪ *Read excerpt: “ten unthinkable questions for the US”
o Chapter 2: China’s
Biggest Strategic Mistake
▪ Read pages 25-38
• Campbell,
Kurt M., and Ely Ratner. "The China reckoning: how Beijing defied American
expectations." Foreign Aff. 97 (2018): 60-70.
o Can be accessed at
https://china.usc.edu/sites/default/files/campbell%20and%20ratner%202018%20the% 20china%20reckoning.pdf
• Mike Pompeo, “Communist China and the Free World’s Future”, 23 July
2020
https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/
5
Optional
• Di, He. "The most respected enemy: Mao
Zedong's perception
of the United States." The
China Quarterly 137 (1994): 144-158. https://www.jstor.org/stable/655690?seq=1
• Cohen, Warren I.
America's response to China: a history of
Sino-American
relations.
Columbia University Press, 2019.
o Chapter 8: Rapprochement
– At
Last
• Skidmore, David, and
William Gates.
"After Tiananmen: The struggle over US policy toward
China in
the
Bush administration." Presidential
Studies
Quarterly 27, no. 3 (1997): 514-539. • Jisi,
Wang,
and Hu Ran. "From cooperative partnership to
strategic competition:
a review of
China–US relations
2009–2019." China International Strategy Review 1, no. 1 (2019): 1-10.
• Mike Pence, “Remarks
by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s
Policy
Toward
China”,
October 4, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-
president-pence-administrations-policy-toward-china/
• Michael Posner, “Weiqi: The game that holds China's key to
world domination.” The Globe
and Mail, 10 June 2011. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/munk-debates/weiqi-the-
game-that-holds-chinas-key-to-world-domination/article598664/
• Stephen Roach and Shan Weijian, “The Fable of the Chinese Whistleblower”, Project
Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-charges-against-china-
covid19-alternative-facts-by-stephen-s-roach-and-weijian-shan-2020-05
o can also be accessed at
https://www.chinausfocus.com/society-culture/the-fable-of-the-chinese-whistleblower
• Henry Kissinger. On
China. New York:
Penguin
Press, 2011.
Week 3: Fundamental
misunderstandings between America & China
Required
• HCW:
o The Assumption
of Virtue
▪ Read pages 183-192
o Should China Become
Democratic?
▪ Read pages 152-162
o *“Memo to Comrade Xi” excerpt
• John Mearsheimer, “Introduction,” In
George Kennan, American Diplomacy, 1900-1950
(2012).
6
o An excerpt
can be found at
https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=M6xOd-CO7zQC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false
o Read pages xvi-xxviii
• Marvin Zonis, “The Faltering
Veil
of Legitimacy in the United States”.
http://marvinzonis.com/posts/the-faltering-“veil-of-legitimacy”-in-the-united-states
o Accessible at http://web.archive.org/web/20200920084157/http://marvinzonis.com/posts/the-faltering-“veil-of-legitimacy”-in-the-united-states
• Cunningham, Edward, Tony
Saich, and Jessie Turiel. “Understanding
CCP
Resilience:
Surveying Chinese Public Opinion
Through Time.” Ash Center for Democratic Governance
and Innovation
(2020).
o Accessible at
https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files/final_policy_brief_7.6.2020.pdf
o Read pages 1-4
Optional
• Martin Gilens
and Benjamin
I. Page,“Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest
Groups, and Average Citizens,”
Perspectives on
Politics
12, no. 3 (September 2014):
564–
581.
o Accessible at https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf
o Read concluding section, “American Democracy?”
• Alexander Hertel-Fernandez,
Theda Skocpol, and
Jason
Sclar,“ When Political Mega-Donors
Join Forces:
How
the Koch Network and
the Democracy Alliance Influence Organized U.S.
Politics on the
Right and Left,” Studies
in American
Political Development 32,
no. 2 (2018):
127–165.
o Accessible at
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/ahertel/files/donorconsortia-named.pdf
o Read pages 75-77
• Jean Fan, “The American Dream
is Alive in China,” Palladium Magazine, October 2019.
https://palladiummag.com/2019/10/11/the-american-dream-is-alive-in-china/
• Pankaj Mishra,
“Flailing
States”, London
Review of Books, 16 July 2020, https://lrb.co.uk/the-
paper/v42/n14/pankaj-mishra/flailing-states
7
• Joseph
Stiglitz,
“How Did
China Succeed?”, 14 September 2018,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iaw4n9IZDdc
Week 4: Can America and China choose a better path?
Required
• HCW
o Chapter 8: How will other countries choose?
o Conclusion
• Dino Djalal, “Why Trump’s
Anti-China Policy Falls
on Deaf Ears in Southeast Asia”, The
Diplomat,
15 October 2020. https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/why-trumps-anti-china-policy-falls-on-deaf-ears-in-southeast-asia/
• Fuying, “Cooperative Competition Is Possible Between China and the
U.S.” New York Times,
24 November 2020,
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/opinion/china-us-biden.html
• Kanti Bajpai, “China and
India: A New Diplomacy,” Asian
Peace Programme, 01 July 2020,
https://ari.nus.edu.sg/app-essay-kanti-bajpai/.
• Michael Vatikiotis, “The Biden Era: challenges and opportunities for Southeast
Asia,” Asian
Peace Programme, 21 November 2020, https://ari.nus.edu.sg/app-essay-michael-vatikiotis/.
Optional
• Wang, Jisi, "“Marching Westwards”: The Rebalancing
of China’s Geostrategy."
In The World
in 2020 According to China, pp. 129-136. Brill,
2014.
• Lee Hsien Loong,
"The Endangered Asian Century." Foreign Aff. 99 (2020): 52.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2020-06-04/lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-
century
• Gideon Rachman,
“A
new cold war:
Trump, Xi and the escalating
US-China confrontation”
Financial Times,
5 October 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/7b809c6a-f733-46f5-a312-
9152aed28172
• Hugh White, “America or China? Australia is fooling
itself that
it
doesn't have to
choose,”
The Guardian, 26 October 2017,
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/27/america-or-china-were-fooling-ourselves-that-we-dont-have-to-choose
• Chas Freeman, “After the Trade War, a Real
War with
China?”, 12 February 2019,
https://chasfreeman.net/after-the-trade-war-a-real-war-with-china/
8
• Allison, Graham.
Destined for war: Can
America and China escape Thucydides's
trap?.
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt,
2017.
o For excerpts, see https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/06/what-xi-jinping-wants/138309/ and https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/ . See also https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/war-between-china-and-united-states-isnt-inevitable-its-likely-excerpt-graham-allisons
• Martin Jacques, “From Follower to Leader: The Story of China’s
Rise”, 21 September 2021,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psyy4KqEKtA
